Ranking 2023 MLB Postseason Teams By Narrative Value
The 12 most satisfying storylines to root for this October
Often as fans we root for the best story.
When choosing rooting interests in the MLB postseason, this can equate to pleas to reverse the curse. Or it can mean cheering for the underdog or the team with the longest World Series drought.
It can mean backing teams that have overcome adversity. Or sometimes our sympathy may lie with the would-be dynasty that would enhance its legacy with one more commissioner’s trophy.
Whatever the reason, October is the season for narratives. And this is how I would rank the 12 most satisfying dénouements to the 2023 season were they to come to pass.
1. Baltimore Orioles
AL East division winner (#1 seed)
From 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season and the best record in the American League, the Orioles are the feel-good story of the 2023 regular season.
Baltimore had a winning record against every beast of the AL East this season. It has the probable AL Rookie of the Year in shortstop Gunnar Henderson. It has franchise catcher Adley Rutschman and burgeoning ace righthander Kyle Bradish. It has the best bullpen in the AL.
What the Orioles don’t have is a World Series championship since 1983, which is the longest drought for this year’s postseason participants, at least among franchises with a previous championship.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
NL Central division winner (#3 seed)
The Brewers have one league pennant in franchise history—but it happened in the American League.
The city of Milwaukee has celebrated a World Series championship—but it occurred with a different franchise, the 1957 Braves.
Is this the year Brewers manager Craig Counsell—how has he never won NL Manager of the Year?—and his dominant pitching staff—first in the NL in ERA+ and WHIP—get the job done in October?
3. Texas Rangers
AL Wild Card 2 (#5 seed)
The Rangers won back-to-back American League pennants in 2010 and 2011. They fell short in the World Series both times, the latter in heartbreaking fashion. Texas is one of six teams to never win the big prize, and one of four franchises that predate the 1990s expansion teams—the Brewers, Mariners and Padres are the others—to never win the World Series.
Texas hired Bruce Bochy as manager to help a high-payroll club coming off a 94-loss season get over the hump. Mission accomplished for the 90-win Rangers.
The Rangers got what they paid for with megadeal free agents Corey Seager and Marcus Semien—but less than expected from Jacob deGrom and marquee trade deadline pickup Max Scherzer. Texas’ secret weapon—aside from money—has been its ability to clean up around the margins with low-cost, high-value additions such as Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, Dane Dunning and Nathaniel Lowe.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
AL Wild Card 1 (#4 seed)
The perennial “Little Engine That Could” weathered a series of devastating injuries to starters Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen (all to Tommy John surgery) plus second baseman Brandon Lowe—not to mention the de facto suspension of Wander Franco—to win 99 games, second most in franchise history.
If not for the rise of the Orioles, Tampa Bay would have taken the AL East. This is the Rays’ fifth straight trip to the postseason. Only the Astros have a longer active streak in the AL.
Tampa Bay lost the World Series in 2008 and 2020 and seeks its first title.
5. Minnesota Twins
AL Central division winner (#3 seed)
These Twins may be more dangerous in a short series than their 87-75 record reflects.
Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray had two of the best starting pitcher seasons for Minnesota since Johan Santana left town. Both will receive votes for AL Cy Young. Shutdown closer Jhoan Duran has two of the nastiest weapons in baseball. Rookies Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner punched up the offense, especially in the second half.
The Twins last won the World Series in 1991, and have won only one postseason series in nine trips since then, back in 2002. They could be due.
6. Toronto Blue Jays
AL Wild Card 3 (#6 seed)
The Blue Jays won the World Series in 1992 and 1993 but then endured a lengthy postseason drought that did not end until 2015. They have won a wild card in each of the past two seasons.
The Toronto front office has pumped a lot of money and trade capital into the supporting cast for homegrown stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a group that includes Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and George Springer.
This core should have two more bites at the apple if they don’t get it done this season.
7. Atlanta Braves
NL East division winner (#1 seed)
With six consecutive NL East division titles, two straight 100-win campaigns and a World Series championship in 2021, the Braves are most definitely not due any good fortune.
However, the Atlanta offense just completed a legacy-type season in which its team OPS+ of 124 rivaled the historic 1927 Yankees for dominance of one’s league.
8. Los Angeles Dodgers
NL West division winner (#2 seed)
The Dodgers are making their 11th consecutive postseason appearance. They won the NL West in 10 of those 11 seasons. In the one season they did not win the NL West, the Dodgers still won 106 games, one fewer than the surprising 2021 Giants.
What makes this Dodgers team compelling is its improvisational ability. Right fielder Mookie Betts became the club’s primary second baseman in the second half and established the RBI record for leadoff hitters. Freddie Freeman became the 11th first baseman ever to go 20-20, while hitting .331 and grounding into a double play just twice a month.
But the truly inspirational element of this Dodgers roster is its young starting pitching. With Clayton Kershaw slowed with a sore shoulder and Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May unavailable, Los Angeles will lean on electric rookie starters Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot.
If the Dodgers can make a deep postseason run, it will be because those young starters came through in big spots.
9. Philadelphia Phillies
NL Wild Card 1 (#4 seed)
The 2022 postseason showcased what the Phillies can do in a short series with their starpower.
Now they add Trea Turner to a core that includes stars Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola and Kyle Schwarber.
10. Houston Astros
AL West division winner (#2 seed)
The Astros winning the World Series with Dusty Baker at the helm last year rated high for narrative value. Baker secured his first ring and Cooperstown standing. The Astros cemented their legacy and dynasty status.
An encore wouldn’t have the same appeal.
But give the Astros credit for scrapping their way to the AL West title, their sixth in the past six 162-game seasons. Houston won four games in a row to close the season, and they needed all four to win the West.
11. Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card 3 (#6 seed)
Arizona has a fun, young team, led by NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll and established stars Zac Gallen and Ketel Marte. The D-backs further embellished their postseason chances by trading for Paul Sewald, Tommy Pham and Jace Peterson. They deserve credit for that.
But an 84-win team with a –15 run differential just does not inspire headlines.
Check back in a year when Jordan Lawlar, Gabriel Moreno and Brandon Pfaadt have another season under their belts. Better days are on the horizon for the D-backs.
12. Miami Marlins
NL Wild Card 2 (#5 seed)
The 2023 Marlins are record-breakers.
Their –56 run differential is the worst ever for a postseason team, obliterating the –42 “standard” set by the 2005 Padres.
The Marlins have an outstanding pitching staff, headlined by Jesus Luzardo, Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett and a nasty bullpen, but an 84-win champion that got outscored handily over 162 games would not be as compelling to me as the other 11 worthier championship scenarios.
This is especially true because the Marlins already have two World Series titles compared with zero divisional titles.